I am going to repeat stuff from sister blog!!

I am going to repeat stuff from the sister blog "Accountancy Distilled", which today looked at the gold price. This has rallied 12 per cent since India bought 200 metric tonnes from the IMF in early November and is now $1,180.50 an ounce. This blog is not an investment newsletter with recommendations as such but the gold price probably shows us that there are quite a few nervous investors out there. You can buy
physical gold, gold certificates, gold futures, gold coins, gold jewellery and the shares of gold miners. I don't have any of these gold-linked assets but I wish I had a few Victorian
sovereigns for sentimental value.
The "Accountancy Distilled" blog started off with a bit of a rant against Gordon Brown in who,in his former incarnation of British Chancellor, ordered the independent Bank of England to sell gold at $252 an ounce against its advice. I suppose if the British central bank was not so spineless there could have been a few resignations about it but why walk the plank early when the pensions are so juicy?
I suppose now is not the time for IFAs to recommend gold purchases to their clients following the sharp rise. However, maybe it is not the time to be in fixed income gilts. This is not a recommendation but perhaps an observation!! Inflation is already rising quite sharply (petrol prices, New Year VAT increase) and if the Bank of England does not support the pound with an interest rate rise or two, then things
could get quite interesting.

Public sector expenditure cuts are on the horizon.

In the United Kingdom public sector expenditure cuts are on the horizon. David Cameron, the Tory leader, has finally got a grudging admission from British premier Gordon Brown. There was a thoughtful article in today's Daily Telegraph, which argued that the main problem is collapsing tax revenues. Currently, benefits outstrip
income tax revenues but I don't know if Labour will get away with their trick in
2005 of winning the election then sharply increasing stealth taxes.
I think UK Chancellor Alistair Darling is praying for a quick end to the recession but he is not helping his reputation for honesty by not having a comprehensive spending review.
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To be fair to the UK, other countries are in similar situations such as Spain, Greece
and Italy. In Ireland, there have been tough spending cuts. However, we are in electoral limbo and this is exacerbated by Gordon Brown's seeming determination to struggle on until 2010. This is too long given the cabinet's propensity to implode.
I don't think we can have another ministerial reshuffle. An October general election might be better for Labour.
Also, Shadow Chancellor George Osborne might find it difficult to promote austerity measures when it is perceived he comes from quite a privileged background. Labour will be relentless about Old Etonians, investment versus spending cuts and the fact that some Tory policies don't stack up. Apparently, its educational policy is quietly
collapsing.

Paul Krugman says UK economy is well-positioned.

The distinguished U.S economist Paul Krugman says the UK economy is well-positioned compared with its European counterparts due to policies such as low interest rates.
He gives a lot of credit to British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
However, the UK economic landscape has changed radically.
It is good to be positive but the City of London will not be a major producer of tax revenues while the car industry in Britain is getting a real battering. Exports will not be helped by a recovery of sterling against the euro and the dollar.
If the "green shoots" of recovery consolidate, then we will have to work out how to pay the bill for the UK government's borrowings. Some commentators are predicting ten years of higher taxes and lower public spending.
Some observers say the banking sector is now stable. However, Royal Bank of Scotland
(RBS) and Lloyds will be quite interested in getting down the state holdings and possibly less interested in refinancing British industry.
However, building societies seem vulnerable and the Nationwide cannot rescue them all. The recent downgrades in their credit ratings will possibly persuade the building societies to reduce their lending so as to improve their financial strength.

Could we get deflation and prolonged recession?

In the moneymarketing.co.uk edition for 19th March 2009 Brian Tora again does an excellent summary of the current financial situation. He muses about the 1970s and the problems suffered by the UK economy then. Tora concludes that "the risk of being out of the market is rising". Before that, he considers that gilts look vulnerable to a correction.
Since then we have had a gilts auction uncovered, which apparently the bond market taking a dim view of HM Government's borrowing plans. We could get a tough budget from Chancellor Alistair Darling, if he ignores his boss Premier Gordon Brown.
The government wants some voter friendly measures in the budget, which is happening late this year. Chancellor Darling will have to come up with a plan to get the public finances on track.

UK quantative easing is coming our way!!

The United Kingdom government is going to carry out quantative easing to get out of the economic predicament we are in. Gold reached $820 an ounce in August and now it
stands at $1,000. British premier Gordon Brown insisted that we sold at $250 an ounce. I wonder if the two issues are linked? Sterling is not supported by masses of currency reserves unlike the China or Taiwan. Although these countries must be wondering how long will they buy U.S Treasury bonds.
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So we are probably in a bit of sticky situation. British savers have been abandoned (hopefully this will change) and they should keep to mainstream institutions. There was a rush to the Post Office agent Bank of Ireland and now there is a rush back. I suppose everyone needs some certainty.
The shenanigans at Anglo Irish Bank don't look good. I think the Irish would like to have some quantative easing but the good bankers at the Frankfurt-based ECB have proved several steps behind in this current economic crisis. Perhaps, the Bank of England held interest rates too high but have certainly gone for it in a big way. Say the UK central bank buys a few corporate bonds and some gilts, it probably would provide limited help to the housing market, which needs private individuals buying residential properties from other private individuals. To help these transactions Sir James Crosby proposed a reasonable plan involving mortgage securities. This plan has been studiously ignored by the Gordon Brown administration.

Where are the British banks going?

There has been chatter in the UK about the creation of a "toxic bank" to house the ghastly assets not wanted by the British banks. One potential result would be to see the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) halve in size. It would be in the strange position of having no assets left from its ABN Amro acquisition but would still be paying for it.
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I suppose British premier Gordon Brown looks at the electoral calendar and has decided he has not got enough time for the banks to gouge out the profits from UK consumers and corporates while it slowly writes off the problematic items on its balance sheet. The prime minister wants the British banks to lend again but they have instituted very conservative lending standards in the residential property sector and they don't seem to have any desire to lower them.
The UK economy is very dependent on the housing sector. House prices have fallen badly but there has not been any sign of real capitulation selling. For instance, the buy-to-let sector has held up well given the implosion of the main lender
Bradford and Bingley. If vendors start accepting the offers being actually made then
it will at least get the transaction numbers moving.
Hopefully, the toxic bank will not have to take lots of mortgage loans but unfortunately it will be full of acronym rubbish such as SIVs, CDOs as well as a load of corporate loans.

The credit crunch in the United Kingdom - how long?

I don't want to be negative but previous credit crunches in the United Kingdom have coincided with recessions. They seem to go together like ham and eggs and I can't
see British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and UK Chancellor Alistair Darling managing to persuade the banks to resume lending. I would assume the credit crunch to last
for the whole of 2008 while the housing market is already suffering from a lack of buyers. Some areas such as London are going up but others such as the West Midlands
are going down.
I think Brown and Darling should cut stamp duty rates to help pep up the housing market, a market, which is being dampened by the slimming down of Northern Rock.
www.searchifa.co.uk. In some respects the
housing market could just freeze up if vendors do not decide to lower prices. There would be just a Mexican stand-off.