Public sector expenditure cuts are on the horizon.

In the United Kingdom public sector expenditure cuts are on the horizon. David Cameron, the Tory leader, has finally got a grudging admission from British premier Gordon Brown. There was a thoughtful article in today's Daily Telegraph, which argued that the main problem is collapsing tax revenues. Currently, benefits outstrip
income tax revenues but I don't know if Labour will get away with their trick in
2005 of winning the election then sharply increasing stealth taxes.
I think UK Chancellor Alistair Darling is praying for a quick end to the recession but he is not helping his reputation for honesty by not having a comprehensive spending review.
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To be fair to the UK, other countries are in similar situations such as Spain, Greece
and Italy. In Ireland, there have been tough spending cuts. However, we are in electoral limbo and this is exacerbated by Gordon Brown's seeming determination to struggle on until 2010. This is too long given the cabinet's propensity to implode.
I don't think we can have another ministerial reshuffle. An October general election might be better for Labour.
Also, Shadow Chancellor George Osborne might find it difficult to promote austerity measures when it is perceived he comes from quite a privileged background. Labour will be relentless about Old Etonians, investment versus spending cuts and the fact that some Tory policies don't stack up. Apparently, its educational policy is quietly
collapsing.

UK Chancellor Alistair Darling stretches credibility.

It is probably correct to say that UK Chancellor Alistair Darling is stretching everyone's credibility with his growth forecasts for the British economy, which is basically England. To get Johnny Foreigner to invest in £200bn plus worth of gilts, I would have personally introduced measures such as higher VAT, lower international aid and European Union payments and lower expenditure on PFI projects. As I am not chancellor....

Introducing a top rate of 50 pct might play well to the left wing of the Labour Party but will lead to a lot of talent going abroad. However, it will be nice to see top-level bureaucrats and town council fat cats having to pay more. I think it is the case that quite a few footballers and football managers get paid through the Channel Islands, so at least this will stop (I think?).

The mountain load of UK government bonds (gilts) will have to compete with US Treasuries, German Bunds and even Spanish Bonos. There is unlikely to be a currency gain since we need a very weak sterling to get the British economy going and to mask the effects of deflation. If there is a gilt buyers strike and we have to lift the yields on these British government bonds, then Gawd help us poor
Britishers.

British Premier Gordon Brown says the economic crisis started abroad. If you say so Gordon. Obviously, Northern Rock and Dunfirmline Building Society are major international institutions. That is why they hit the rocks. (sorry about the pun).

Could we get deflation and prolonged recession?

In the moneymarketing.co.uk edition for 19th March 2009 Brian Tora again does an excellent summary of the current financial situation. He muses about the 1970s and the problems suffered by the UK economy then. Tora concludes that "the risk of being out of the market is rising". Before that, he considers that gilts look vulnerable to a correction.
Since then we have had a gilts auction uncovered, which apparently the bond market taking a dim view of HM Government's borrowing plans. We could get a tough budget from Chancellor Alistair Darling, if he ignores his boss Premier Gordon Brown.
The government wants some voter friendly measures in the budget, which is happening late this year. Chancellor Darling will have to come up with a plan to get the public finances on track.

Bank of England governor - No pain, no gain.

The Bank of England governor, Mervyn King, has not said the phrase "no pain, no gain" but he is pretty adamant in his opposition to any plans by the UK government to prop up the mortgage market. I read in moneymarketing.co.uk one description of Mr King, which said the Aston Villa fan
was a purist and was not a pragmatic economist.
Some parts of the mortgage market continues to operate. If you are creditworthy, then you will still receive credit. However, it looks like there are real problems at the first-time buyer level, which obviously hits chains.
In recent memory building societies ran a cartel while rationing housing loans. Such things were dismantled in the Thatcherite revolution but remarkably banks and building socities can still move together in the United Kingdom. They all seemed to raise their required deposits at the same time and at the same level. Or was that my mistaken impression?
If the Bank of England governor has his way, there will probably be a slow recovery.
UK Chancellor Alistair Darling wants any recovery to be quicker and it will be interesting to see how far he ignores Mr King.
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The credit crunch in the United Kingdom - how long?

I don't want to be negative but previous credit crunches in the United Kingdom have coincided with recessions. They seem to go together like ham and eggs and I can't
see British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and UK Chancellor Alistair Darling managing to persuade the banks to resume lending. I would assume the credit crunch to last
for the whole of 2008 while the housing market is already suffering from a lack of buyers. Some areas such as London are going up but others such as the West Midlands
are going down.
I think Brown and Darling should cut stamp duty rates to help pep up the housing market, a market, which is being dampened by the slimming down of Northern Rock.
www.searchifa.co.uk. In some respects the
housing market could just freeze up if vendors do not decide to lower prices. There would be just a Mexican stand-off.

Merry Xmas and Happy Year to all my readers!!

A Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all my readers. Looking back on the blogs for the year one popular subject has been Northern Rock, the British mortgage lender, which needed rescuing by Her Majesty's Government. There has been some recent comment that a "market solution" should have been applied, ie let the Newcastle-based bank go bust in September. Northern Rock was quite close to me because I lost a few bob on the shares, when I actually sold them.

I think Alistair Darling did the right thing of safeguarding the deposits and perhaps a temporary nationalisation will help right Northern Rock although some deluded shareholders want £4.10 a share. However the cookie crumbles, it does not look good for the reputation of the City. Darling's reputation as Chancellor has not been helped by the Northern Rock debacle. It is thought that he is just a cipher for UK prime minister Gordon Brown. The same Brown who says he just taking Xmas day off for his Christmas holidays and then spends a couple of weeks in Scotland.

CGT or not to CGT that is the question!!

I suppose the personal investor needs an accountant or an independent financial adviser to work out the British form of torture Capital Gains Tax or CGT. There
is a great temptation to ignore it altogether since it is so complicated.

I have looked at the HMRC website
and I am really none the wiser.

For business assets UK Chancellor Alistair Darling is proposing an 80 percent increase in the levy and even three judges in the BBC show "Dragons Den"
are joining the protest.