Is the UK mortgage market going to recover in 2009?

The British government wants the mortgage lending market to recover in 2009 but is this going to happen? In an article for Money Marketing the Charcol technical manager Ray Boulger proposes that Northern Rock, the mortgage bank nationalised by the government, could suspend or reduce the repayments made on the loan made by the Bank of England. This loan stood at £26.9bn at the end of 2007. The move would reduce
the pressure, which is contracting the mortgage market in Britain.
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It is funny that the British government wants to have lending levels set at 2007 levels but it seems that it does not want to influence Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley, which are under its control. I suppose the comment by B & B boss Richard Pym
that the buy-to-let market is dead can be viewed as not helpful.

New Star shining bright?

It does not seem that long ago when the legendary British fund management entrepreneur John Duffield founded New Star with the aim of having the brightest and the best as his fund managers. Duffield had previously stuck it to some Germans and the new company was going places. Now according to a Money Marketing article it is thought that New Star will lose 50 to 60 of its 380 strong workforce.
However, Mr Duffield is positive for the future and sees long-term prospects are still intact with the benefits of increased savings and investment flows. He says property is the best option in terms of UK investment while the influence of India and China will continue to grow.
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Darius McDermott, of Chelsea Financial Services, told Money Marketing that he is confident that the infrastructure to support fund performance will be
there.
New Star International Property has just suspended dealings in the fund due to some institutional withdrawals. On his company web site, Mr McDermott notes that the fund has outperformed the MSCI index with a 9.2 pct decline since its launch.

British IFA firms will be reviewing independence in 2009.

MoneyMarketing has cited a study by the consultancy firm Plimsoll, which considers that some British independent financial advisers (IFAs) will be reviewing their independence in 2009. Some 161 IFAs are heavily in debt while there will be pressure from the retirement of directors. Around 470 of 2,900 IFA directors will be over retirement age during 2009.
Some 834 companies are operating without debt and many have cash surpluses. One strategy will be for the strong IFAs to take over the weak ones.
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Bolton-based Professionally Connected Financial Planning offers comprehensive service.

Professionally Connected Financial Planning (PCFP) was set up in February 1999 by Michael Norris and David Makinson. The firm is based in Bolton and offers the opportunity to pay with fees rather than with commission. PCFP offers advice in areas such as phased
retirement and funding for university fees.
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I think I have been to Bolton once at night and I have seen the team a couple of times. The last time was when Bolton visited Tottenham and got shredded by Keane and Berbatov. However, Anelka looked pretty good and it was a shame that he went to Chelsea. Somehow Keane got himself sent off but it was still a convincing victory for the Spurs.

Bank stocks seem to be continuing their decline.

British bank stocks are again on the rack. Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) is trading at 58 pence despite the fact that it is going to get quite a wodge from the British taxpayer. Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS) reached 90 pence, which is also receiving largesse from the taxpayer. These judgements by the stock market do not show any confidence for the future. This future seems to be one of hard grind sorting out the mess of toxic debt, derivatives and funding issues.
When Abbey National hit the buffers, it was helped by a benign environment to resolve its treasury book and it took several years and a sale to a stronger bank Banco Santander. The HBOS takeover could sink Lloyds TSB. If the combined bank does well I think at a later date the Competition authorities could order a reduction in its UK share of mortgages and savings.
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Are the UK banks going to need more state help?

Barclays is one of the banks, which has turned down the offer of help from the UK government. The British bank has raised money from Gulf investors for example. Independence means that it can exploit international ambitions. This compares with the Royal Bank of Scotland, which looks likely to dispose of quite a few foreign assets.
Barclays has attracted brickbats for ignoring pre-emption rights but has argued that conventional rights issues did not work well with HBOS and Bradford and Bingley. These latter banks were hit by the long delay between announcing the capital raising operation and actually getting the money. The new shares were also issued at a discount, which hit the existing stock price.
Let's hope Barclays is not hit by toxic debt or by increasing loan losses.
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I am reviewing my investments and it is not pretty!!

Sometimes I wish I went to an IFA. I am reviewing my investments and it is not pretty. My portfolio is extremely limited and is becoming more so.
New-build flats are coming down in price but will they recover? One government minister says they don't want a 70m population for the UK. However,if the working population declines, then more workers would have to be imported to cover the increasing number of dependents. It is probable that the population will rise and residential property would again be an interesting investment area.
In Bristol, the firm Edison Ford has significant expertise in the buy-to-let market.